European headlines： US and Europe strengthen military aid to Ukraine？ Calculate the accounts and listen to the voices of the people!

September 21st is the United Nations International Day of Peace. On September 19th, just two days before the International Peace Day, the "Contact Group on Ukraine" led by the United States held another meeting at the American military base in Ramstein, Germany. This is the 15th meeting of the group since its establishment one year ago, and the focus of discussion is still on strengthening military assistance to Ukraine. The United States says it will train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighters at home. Germany announced that it would add 400 million euros worth of military support to Ukraine to purchase ammunition, generators and other equipment. The Czech Republic, Denmark, the Netherlands and other countries have also indicated that they will further provide weapons to Ukraine.

In the face of western governments’ increasing military aid, European folks have made a completely different voice. During the week from September 18 to 24, 17 anti-war organizations in Germany joined forces to hold "Peace Week" activities in various parts of Germany to protest against the Western supply of weapons to Ukraine to ignite the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and demand an immediate ceasefire.

German people WolfgangWe are here (Berlin) demanding an immediate ceasefire. As pacifists, we oppose NATO and military means. Military means is not the solution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict can only be resolved through diplomatic means.

The west may not be able to support Ukrainian ammunition demand.

Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The United States and western countries have constantly promised that "as long as necessary, military aid to Ukraine will stick to the end." But can the United States and the West really do it?

The British "Economist" recently wrote that although these promises sound "like iron", it depends on two uncertain variables: first, whether the West has the ability to provide enough weapons and ammunition for the Ukrainian army, and second, whether the current political will can be sustained.

For the first point, the argument used by western media is that the total gross national product of NATO member countries is 12 times that of Russia, and its economic and military strength is far above that of Russia. But I’m afraid the fact is not as simple as the western imagination.

Estonian Defense Ministry official Cousty Salm pointed out that even in Estonia, where the production cost is relatively low, the cost of manufacturing each new shell is about 5,000 to 6,000 US dollars; The cost in Russia is only 60,000 rubles, or about 620 dollars. This wide cost gap makes the economic advantages of western countries disappear. At the recent annual meeting of NATO Chief of Staff, Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of NATO Military Committee, admitted that Ukraine’s long-term demand for weapons and ammunition exceeded NATO’s capacity, and the rising price of weapons and ammunition also increased the procurement cost.

Rob Bauer, Chairman of NATO Military CommitteeThe defense ministers expressed concern about the backward production capacity of the whole alliance. The delivery time of weapons is constantly delayed, and the prices of equipment and ammunition are rising. Now the exact same equipment is more and more expensive. Ukraine needs a huge amount of weapons and ammunition. This has been the case in previous wars, which is not new in itself. But the scale and usage of Ukraine exceed our production capacity.

In addition, the military equipment delivered by the West seems to be very problematic. Not long ago, Ukraine rejected 10 "Leopard" tanks delivered by Germany with great disgust, on the grounds that their "technical state is not ideal". Military experts said that the "Leopard -1" main battle tank was the technical level in the 1960s. The "Leopard -1A5" provided by Germany to Uzbekistan has been in service for a long time, and after a long period of storage, the stability of its technical state has been greatly reduced. In the eyes of outsiders, western military aid to Ukraine is more like taking the opportunity to consume its old weapons inventory.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict spilled over, and the people opposed the continued aid to weapons.

On September 22nd, a research report released by the Swiss National Bank showed that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict slowed down the economic growth of the European Union and "substantially" pushed up the inflation of the whole Europe. In the medium and long term, the negative impact of this conflict on the real economy may be even greater. "In one to two years, this impact may increase by about two times." Among them, Germany is the most affected.

As the largest economy in Europe, Germany has gone into recession because of the energy crisis caused by sanctions against Russia with the United States and the protectionist policy of its allies making huge war money. The economic forecast report released by the European Union this month shows that Germany’s economy will shrink by 0.4% this year, making it the only country with negative economic growth among the big EU countries. Hong Ke, a member of the German Bundestag, said that Germany’s traditional economic development model has been destroyed.

German left-wing MP HongkeThis is mainly because of economic sanctions, sanctions on energy, natural gas and oil, and Germany needs a lot of energy. Germany’s economic model is a combination of cheap energy, highly skilled workers and exports. Now Germany has blocked the cheap natural gas and oil from Russia, which need to be bought at a very expensive price in the world market, such as shale gas from the United States. This has a very serious impact on the German economy.

On the other hand, the protracted conflict has made people more and more disgusted. Gunnar Lin Deman, a member of the Berlin Regional Council, said that the German people paid three times the price for this war. At the same time, the German people are increasingly worried that the war may spread to themselves. From the initial field hospitals, to the "Leopard" tanks, and then to the Patriot missile system, the weapons provided by Germany to Ukraine have gradually escalated, causing public concern.

According to a recent survey, more than half of the German people are opposed to providing "Taurus" cruise missiles to Ukraine. German parliamentarian Hongke said that with the escalation of the war, the people’s attitude towards assisting Ukraine with weapons has changed.

German left-wing MP HongkeI am totally opposed to providing any weapons, especially more and more advanced weapons. Taurus is a cruise missile with a range of 500 kilometers. Now this topic has caused a heated discussion among the German public, and most Germans are obviously opposed. People’s attitude towards the delivery of weapons has changed, which was not the case before. Now people find that as long as more weapons are delivered, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be endless.

If there is any change in the United States, the European Union will be afraid of being alone

In addition to Germany, more and more countries find that the longer the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the more difficult it is to protect their own interests. Poland, Ukraine’s "staunchest" ally, has loosened its position. The Polish Prime Minister said on the 20th that Poland will no longer provide weapons to Ukraine, but instead focus on increasing its own weapons inventory. The reason for all this is that the European Union has lifted the ban on the sale of Ukrainian agricultural products, and Ukrainian food has flooded into the EU, with neighboring Poland bearing the brunt.

However, the biggest variable is still in the United States. Next year is an election year in the United States, and aid to Ukraine is rapidly becoming a focus issue. The Republican Party of the United States has gradually begun to question the necessity of aid to Ukraine, and some Democrats believe that European allies should be "more active."

The British "Economist" reported that if the United States terminates its support for Ukraine, it will be difficult for Europe to raise enough cash and weapons to arm Ukraine alone.

Producer: Jiang Qiuyong

Editor Liang Mao

Reporter Yu Peng