A new round of oil price adjustment will probably refresh the biggest increase this year.

　　At 24 o’clock on April 17 (next Monday), the eighth round of price adjustment window will be ushered in this year.

　　According to industry estimates, as of April 13th, the eighth working day of this round of refined oil price adjustment, the change rate of reference crude oil is 12.01%, and it is estimated that domestic refined oil will be raised by 510 yuan/ton, which translates into an increase of 0.40 yuan/liter to 0.44 yuan/liter.

　　There are still two working days before the final price adjustment date. Judging from the current data of crude oil change rate, the oil price will probably refresh the biggest increase this year next Monday night.

　　It is worth noting that the first seven rounds of oil price adjustment this year have shown a pattern of "2 up, 3 down and 2 stranded", and the last two rounds of price adjustment have been lowered.

　　According to the current formation mechanism of refined oil prices, the main basis of domestic refined oil price adjustment is the change rate of the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in ten working days compared with the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in the last cycle.

　　In other words, the expected upward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices in this round is related to the upward trend of international oil prices in this price adjustment cycle.

　　Judging from the latest international oil price, as of the close of April 12, the futures price of light crude oil for May delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.73 to close at $83.26 per barrel, an increase of 2.12%; London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose by $1.72 to close at $87.33 a barrel, an increase of 2.01%.

　　In fact, the recent surge in international oil prices is mainly affected by the news that oil-producing countries have announced joint production cuts. Over the past week or so, the international oil price has increased by about 9%.

　　In the news, on April 2, several oil-producing countries announced that they would voluntarily cut crude oil production from May to the end of 2023.

　　Specifically, Saudi Arabia will implement a plan to voluntarily reduce production by 500,000 barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. Kuwait will voluntarily cut its oil production by 128,000 barrels per day from May until the end of 2023.

　　The UAE oil minister said that it will voluntarily reduce oil production by 144,000 barrels per day from May to the end of 2023. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy said that Kazakhstan will contribute 78,000 barrels per day to OPEC+ production reduction.

　　Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia will voluntarily reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023. Algeria will cut its oil production by 48,000 barrels per day from May to the end of 2023.

　　Oman’s Ministry of Energy and Mines said it would voluntarily reduce its oil production by 40,000 barrels per day from May until the end of 2023.

　　According to the first financial reporter, the global crude oil supply is highly concentrated, and OPEC, Russia and the United States account for nearly half of the global crude oil supply, which is the main source of marginal variables of supply. Among them, OPEC and Russia actively regulate supply by setting production quotas, which means that changes in their production policies can have a greater impact on the balance between supply and demand of oil products.

　　"OPEC+ suddenly announced a further reduction of production by 1.6 million barrels per day, and the international oil price rose rapidly. WTI once again broke through 80 US dollars per barrel. We believe that there is still room for upward growth in crude oil prices in April." Guosen Securities analysis said.

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, Lu Qiaohui, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, believes that international crude oil may maintain a volatile trend, and there are still three working days from the price adjustment window. It is a foregone conclusion that the retail price of this round will be greatly raised. "Affected by this, the final price adjustment of this round of retail price is expected to be around 500 yuan/ton, when the retail price will rise sharply, or it will usher in the biggest increase in the year."